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Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, February 2 2005
A. Significant Shift in Chinese Policy Towards Taiwan
B. Important Mainland Officials Visit Taiwan
-Significant Shift in Chinese Policy Towards Taiwan
In the last several weeks analysts have identified a new pattern emerging in Beijing’s Taiwan policy, and a recent speech commemorating former leader Jiang Zemin’s “8 Points” on the issue have confirmed that Hu Jintao’s government has begun to pursue a slightly different technique to deal with the island. Simply put, China has begun to use a carrot and stick method, in part by simultaneously threatening Taiwan with a new anti-secession law, occasionally mentioning the possibility of war, and not allowing Taiwanese businessmen who support independent activists to do business in China, while at the same time calling for direct cross-strait flights, more unofficial agreements regarding trade, travel, and mail, and sending high level officials to visit Taiwan in commemoration of a deceased, respected negotiator. (See below).
Chang Wu-Ueh of Tamkang University Institute recently commented that, “If China wants to be soft, it will be softer than before. If China wants to be hard, it will be harder than before.” China is in essence trying to give the Taiwanese a choice between absolute war and a reunification process that falls within Taiwan’s interests.
One Chinese official commented that China was open to negotiation with any Taiwanese politician, “regardless of his past rhetoric and actions.” This goes farther than previous statements, which blamed specific politicians for the increase in tensions. This statement seems to imply that even the Taiwanese President, Chen Shui-bian, is also included. Yet any politician who wants dialogue with the mainland still must accept the one-China principle, and that has been the dealkiller up to this point in time. In any case, analysts say that these changes can partly be attributed to Hu’s desire to put his own stamp on Taiwan policy, and partly attributed to the feeling that after pro-independence parties failed to capture the legislature in Taiwan a more conciliatory approach would damage Chen’s support for independence policies.
Two issues that define this new policy are the cross-strait flights and anti-secession law. Up to this point, the cross strait flights have been a success, and Chinese Major General Wang Zaixi has said that these flights, “provide a good model and create good conditions” for establishing direct trade, transport and mail. It is a new page in cross-strait relations and a real success. Yet at the same time Chinese government and party officials are considering passing an anti-secession law that would oblige the Chinese government to use military force to ensure that Taiwan does not attempt to formally separate itself from the mainland. Taiwan has condemned the action as a unilateral change to the status quo, but it seems China will pass (rubber-stamp) the law in the near future. Some see it as a Chinese version of the Taiwan Relations Act. When seen together, it becomes clear that the PRC is trying to make the choice for Taiwan clearer; certain war and defeat or significant economic benefits.
-Important Mainland Officials Visit Taiwan
The highest level visit by Chinese officials to Taiwan in ten years recently occurred when Sun Yafun, Vice President of the mainland’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, as well as its Secretary General Li Yafei, visited Taiwan to commemorate the decease of a prominent Taiwanese diplomat. Although the two will not hold any talks or meet officials, comments they made and the timing of their visit are significant, causing many to describe the visit as a culmination in a relaxation of tension in the Taiwan Strait.
Sun stated that, “I haven’t visited Taiwan for nearly eleven years and I really want to visit there again so I can better understand the people who live there.” The two Chinese officials also said they hoped that more substantive discussions could take place soon, and even bowed to the picture of the Taiwanese diplomat, Koo Chen-fu, for whom they came to Taiwan to commemorate.
Moreover, this visit comes in the wake of several significant events. A new Taiwanese Prime Minister, Frank Hsieh, has called for cooperation with China and a lessening of tensions. A few days before, the historical cross-strait flights began. And finally, the Chinese side in a ceremony celebrating Jiang Zemin’s first declaration of his “8 Points” regarding Taiwan said that the PRC was willing to negotiate with any Taiwanese despite his past. Moreover, the high level of these officials is significant as well. While it is not clear where the next steps might be taken to increase cooperation, the atmosphere now is better than it has been for several years.
Interesting Article on Taiwan in National Review
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/blumenthal200501270741.asp
Joseph Torigian
Jptori@umich.edu
posted by Joseph @ 6:04 PM
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