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Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, Wednesday 2 2005

A. Japan and US See Peace in Taiwan Straits as Strategic Objective

B. Possibility of Regular Flights?

C. Taiwanese President Does Not Rule out Reunification; Major Political Repercussions


-Japan and US See Peace in Taiwan Straits as Strategic Objective
For the first time, Japan has stated that a peaceful resolution to the crisis in the Taiwan Straits is a strategic objective that it shares with the United States. This is a significant change in past policy, as Japan normally avoids the topic in order not to displease the Chinese government. However, a number of recent developments have caused the Japanese government to see China as more of a threat and to take a harder line, and Japanese actions as well have angered Chinese officials.
Both sides have recently taken maneuvers seen by the other side as provocative. A Han-class Chinese submarine entered Japanese territorial waters and was chased by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces for two days. Several analysts have claimed that this action may have been a test of Japan’s resolve should China invade Taiwan. Japan recently occupied a lighthouse built by nationalists in the 1970s on a small island in strategically and economically valuable area to which both countries lay claim. Li Teng-Hui, a former Taiwanese president, was granted a Japanese visa. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi still visits Yasukuni Shrine, a cemetery with several war-criminals from World War II. Both sides lay claim to the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu in Chinese), an issue that for a long time was dormant but has flared up again due to other factors. Competition for resources has also been a source of contention, as both sides tried to persuade Russia to build a pipeline that favored their interests, with Japan winning the deal in the end. Japan’s Defense Ministry also recently released a report that saw China’s military as a threat in the near-term, confirming Chinese suspicions.
The influence of these developments, among others, have pushed Japan and the US closer strategically, causing the US Secretaries of Defense and State, as well as their Japanese counterparts, to declare after their recent “2+2 meeting in Washington that Taiwan should be defended in the wake of an unprovoked Chinese attack. The Taiwanese representative in Japan commented that, “This is the first time that Japan has made its stance clear; in the past Japan has been very indirect on the Taiwan issue.”
Because of Japan’s Constitution, it would be unable to take direct military action to resist any Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But this declaration seems to imply that in the event of war Japan would agree to support US forces with logistical support, like transportation, as well as conduct medical rescue missions behind the lines.


-Possibility of Regular Flights?
On February 16, Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian called for talks on direct cargo flights between Taiwan and the mainland. He said at a dinner held for Taiwanese businessmen working in China that, “I hope to re-open the door for negotiators and to promote plans to make cargo shipments using the Lunar New Year charter flights as a basis.” Chinese newspaper editorials, frequently used to convey the feelings of senior government officials, have also recently called for regular direct flights, both for cargo shipments and individual travellers. China called for the Taiwanese authorities not to pursue such agreements because of “narrow-minded political calculations,” and to accept the “Hong Kong” basis for new talks. This refers to a previous agreement that each side would adhere to the “One China” policy but reserve the right to interpret that concept in its own way.
Despite the recent warming of cross-strait relations and the stated desire of both sides to pursue more direct flights, it is not clear whether or not it will be possible to accomplish. Chen has refused to accept the “One China” policy on any condition, and due to Taiwanese security concerns it may be difficult to allow for so many planes of unclear origins to fly daily across the Taiwan Straits. The Taiwanese Mainland Affairs Council also says that only Taiwanese authorized by the government would be allowed to negotiate with the mainland.
If direct cargo flights were allowed, it would increase cross-strait economic ties to a new level. Many Chinese officials feel that increased economic ties would decrease hopes for Taiwanese independence, and show good will toward Taiwan. It would also signify that should Taiwan pursue independence, the economic repercussions, let alone military confrontation, would be unacceptable.

-Taiwanese President Does Not Rule out Reunification
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-Bian recently met with James Soong of the opposition People First Party. Their joint statement after the meeting, in which Chen agreed not to pursue independence and did not rule out eventual reunification with China, has sent shockwaves throughout the political world. Another important result of the meeting was that it has shown the degree to which American officials are directly involved with Taiwanese politics.
In the joint statement, Chen said that he would, “not rule out the possibility of any model of relationship evolving on the basis of goodwill.” He also said that he would not pursue independence, would not change the name of the “Republic of China”(Taiwan), nor would he put these issues to referendum for the rest of his term, which ends in 2008. These commitments go much farther than Chen has ever promised before. The meeting comes after several years of hostility between the ruling and opposition parties, of which James Soong’s People First Party is one. The PFP is heavily pro-China. After the recent legislative elections in which opposition parties retained their majority, Chen was forced to try to cooperate with the opposition in order to accomplish any of his objectives. However, Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party, is heavily pro-independence, and many of the party faithful felt that Chen sold them out after this meeting. In fact, the DPP’s more radical “pan-green” ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, has threatened to stop cooperating with the DPP. At the same time, the Nationalist Party, the PFP’s nominal ally, felt left out of the meeting, and are wary of PFP-DPP cooperation not in the interest of the Nationalist Party. Soong claims that the whole meeting was masterminded by the United States government. He asked reporters at a news conference, “Do you think President Chen will talk to me without the Americans?” He also said that American officials used swear words to refer to President Chen, and that they told him, “the cross-strait situation was far more serious than the Taiwanese authorities assumed.” Some analysts say that claims of American involvement have some credibility, as the US does not want any trouble in East Asia while it is distracted in the Middle East, and that by giving Soong a high profile he might not as ardently oppose an $18 billion weapons purchase. In any case, although cross-aisle relations might not be as unfriendly as before, trouble within the two camps themselves has gotten worse.

posted by Joseph @ 6:30 AM