Who is the Kwisatz Haderach?
Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, November 24 2004
A. APEC Conference and Cross-Strait Relations
B. Taiwanese President Unveils some Potentially Destabilizing Policies
-APEC Conference and Cross-Strait Relations
The recent APEC Conference in Santiago, Chile was notable for a number of developments regarding cross-strait relations. Chinese President Hu Jintao met with President George W. Bush and they discussed Taiwan in detail. Hu spent a large amount of time lecturing Bush on the situation between China and Taiwan, and a spokesperson for the Chinese side said of the discussions: “The US side should perceive the dangerous nature of Taiwan independence and work together to check the separatist activities there.” Bush responded by criticizing the missile buildup in Fujian province across from Taiwan, and urged Hu to scale back the military presence in the area to reduce tensions. Secretary of State Colin Powell said that Bush, “passed on our concern that there are so many missiles on the mainland pointed at Taiwan.” At the same time, the two seemed to have worked out an informal agreement. Bush agreed to not support Taiwanese independence while China agreed to support the rebuilding of Iraq and work with America on the issue of North Korea’s weapons program. Furthermore, senior US officials in Washington said that China “understood” the importance of cross-strait dialogue, which some analysts interpret as a possible sign that China might be more open to talking with Taiwan. A final important footnote regarding this meeting is that the US briefed Taiwan on what was to be discussed at the meeting before it took place, which was stressed because of Taiwan’s shock and outrage at Powell’s comments in Beijing several weeks ago because of not being previously notified. A representative of the Taiwanese government mentioned, “US authorities briefed us on their basic policy line ahead of the Bush-Hu talks on the sidelines of the ongoing informal leadership meeting of the APEC forum in Santiago the previous day.”
Another important meeting at the conference was between Taiwan’s representative, Yuan T. Lee, the head of Academica Sinica (the top government research institute in Taiwan) and Hu Jintao. It is the highest level meeting between the two sides in twelve years. At most conferences the Chinese side ignores the Taiwanese delegation. Lee described the conversaton as cordial and thathe and Hu could “talk like friends,” but the two sides completely disagreed on what was discussed. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Kong Quan said, “The core element of their conversation was that the one China principle must be adhered to.” Lee, however, said, “We didn’t raise cross-strait issues because they were unrelated to the APEC summit.” Lee blamed China’s comment on the fact that the Chinese mention “the one China principle” all the time and the recent statement was nothing to be surprised about. It is clear, however, that this meeting is an important development when seen in tandem with the US officials’ comments on the Hu-Bush talks.
The final meeting that deserves mentioning is that of between Lee and Bush. Lee said that, “While I was talking with Putin, Bush patted my shoulder from behind and that Putin that I’m a Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry.” Lee congratulated Bush on his re-election and was introduced to the first lady. It seems that this type of small talk was the extent of the conversation.
-Taiwanese President Unveils Several Potentially Destabilizing Policies
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has recently warned that if China continues to “bully” Taiwan, Taiwan would be forced to consider a referendum on “one country, two systems.” Chen said at a campaign rally, “We would like to tell Beijing that if you force us too much, we will not exclude putting these demands as topics for referendums.” This came about after the leader of the opposition pan-blue camp, Lien Chan, tried to call the president’s bluff by suggesting that the president sponsor a referendum on reunification or independence. This would put pressure on the president to support a policy he knew would be destabilizing but pleasing to his voter base. The President countered by saying a bill past last year by the dominant pan-blue camp in the Legislative Yuan known as the “bird-cage” Referendum Law prevented certain types of referendums, including those regarding independence and reunification. A referendum on “one country, two systems” would be legal, however. Yet Chen did promise that if his pan-green camp was able to gain a majority in the December 11 election, he would reform the Referendum Law to allow for more types of referendums, each of which potentially destabilizing to the Taiwan Straits.
At the same time, Chen has been supporting new policies that he believes would make Taiwanese de facto independence and sovereignty more clear to the international community, which he believes would thereby make de jure sovereignty more likely. He has called for changes to Taiwan’s education system to focus on Taiwanese history rather than Chinese history, to change the country’s emblem, and even to change the country’s national anthem. Most importantly, he has also called for a complete overhaul of the country’s constitution to make it a “normal” country. As Chen has also been calling for dialogue with the mainland, it is unclear what his future plans for cross-strait relations might be. As most analysts tend to agree that the green-party will have at least a slim majority in the Legislative Yuan after the elections, Chen might start making the most concrete steps so far towards Taiwanese independence. Things may soon come to a head.
Assimilate this!
Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, November 17 2004
A. Developments in Cross-Strait Relations
B. Textbook Controversy
C. Taiwanese President Claims He Discovered Coup Attempt
-Developments in Cross-Strait Relations
The Chinese and Taiwanese have recently sent each other a series of mixed signals regarding their intent towards cross-strait relations, and analysts are unclear about their significance. On the Chinese side, Wang Zaixi, the Vice Minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office, said in a rare interview that armed conflict may become inevitable. He accused Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian of exploiting the mainland’s current focus on the economy and 2008 Olympics. He also personally attacked Chen, saying that he was insincere and double-dealing, and described the Taiwanese government’s decision to change textbooks to focus on Taiwan rather than China (see below) as, “ridiculous and laughable.” Yet he also held out hope for negotiations by saying that the one China principle was the sole condition for talks. He claimed that, “The one China principle is the most fundamental, most basic, and necessary consensus.” Also in the last week, Chinese President Hu Jintao said rather conciliatory words about Taiwan to a group of Chinese in Brazil. He said that the China’s priority was on economic development rather than cross-strait reunification, and that Chinese on both sides of the strait were “one family.”
Chen said Hu’s words showed, “some goodwill toward the expectation of a gradual thaw in the lingering cross-strait stalemate.” He also called Wang’s interview “a sign of goodwill,” surprising many analysts because of Wang’s decidedly threatening and uncompromising words toward Taiwan and Chen personally. Chen also has been trying especially hard to establish direct flights with the mainland. While Chen has recently repeatedly called for talks with the mainland, he has taken two serious steps sure to anger the PRC. He has said that Taiwan would apply as a member of the United Nations under the name Taiwan rather than the Republic of China (it’s current name), and he is trying to change Taiwanese textbooks to marginalize Chinese history.
Some analysts have attributed Chen’s seemingly erratic behavior to the upcoming legislative elections in December. The decision to apply to the UN as “Taiwan” and to change the high school textbooks shows that Chen is playing to his base to help his party win. At the same time, by showing an attempt to engage China he is soothing voter fears about whether or not he is a loose cannon that could provoke retaliation. If those overtures are sincere is unclear. On the other hand, it is certain that the PRC neither likes nor trusts Chen, but is not certain whether or not recent Chinese statements indicate more willingness to engage Taiwan, or if that interpretation reads too much into the statements.
-Textbook Controversy
The Taiwanese government will change high school history classes by separating Chinese history from Taiwanese history in an attempt to create a stronger Taiwanese identity. Taiwanese history is currently part of Chinese history courses, but after the change one third of the classes will be about Taiwanese history, one third about Chinese history, and another third about world history. In 2005, teachers will be forced to make the change, and they are not pleased with the decision. The Chairman of the Taipei High School Principals Association said it would become impossible to grade exams because of students graduating at different times and that students would become “schizophrenics” because of the confusing nature of the change. Radical teacher unions also disagreed with the decision, saying that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s decision to change the textbooks according to their own views was just as bad as the KMT’s decision to do so when they were in control of the country. The Kuomintang also denounced the education reforms, claiming that it would provoke China and was just politics being played out in the education system.
The most controversial part of the decision was to include the founding of the Republic of China by Sun Yat-Sen as part of ancient Chinese history, not Taiwanese history. Taiwan is the truncated version of the Republic of China, which fleed to Taiwan in 1949, so this decision has been criticized by many people. According to the China Post, the new text will focus, “on Taiwanese heroes, human rights abuses in the days of martial law under the KMT and the 2-28 massacre of local Taiwanese by KMT forces in 1947.”
Of course, the Chinese are not pleased. Xinhua wrote, “"Behind the move is simply a separatist ambition to gradually dilute the Taiwan people's sense of being Chinese." State Council Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Zhang Mingqing called it a trick to promote separation.
Clearly, this decision to change the textbooks in such a way is important. The decision was obviously very political and the new class schedule has a distinct political agenda. The new textbooks will deliberately ignore or neglect important connections between China and Taiwan, and will certainly anger the mainland. It also could possibly make it harder years in the future should a final status agreement ever be discussed.
-Taiwanese President Claims He Discovers Coup Attempt
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has recently claimed that the opposition attempted a coup in the seven days after his re-election, causing a firestorm in Taiwanese politics. Chen said that a number of former generals talked to top brass in the Taiwanese army in an attempt to get them to retire in mass to destabilize the government and throw its credibility into question. The Kuomintang have accused Chen of being illogical and unfairly casting aspersions on the armed forces. Chen has yet to provide evidence of the coup. Most analysts attribute Chen’s words to the upcoming election and a desire to draw sympathy votes, and many say that Chen’s words are potentially destabilizing for a country whose democracy is not yet fully mature.
Hi Worf! Eat any good books lately?
Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, November 10 2004
A. Implications of US Election for Taiwan
B. Court Rejects Bid to Nullify Presidential Election
C. New Poll Numbers
D. Arms Purchase Delayed Until After Election
-Implications of US Election for Taiwan
Taiwanese analysts feel that despite the loss of several influential members of the Taiwan Caucus in Congress because of retirement or unsuccessful election campaigns, support for Taiwan in the Senate and House should remain strong. Florida Democrat Peter Deutsch and Pennsylvania Democrat Joseph Hoeffel, both strong supporters of Taiwan, lost bids for the Senate. Two other losses for the Taiwan Caucus include Tom Daschle, whose bid for re-election was unsuccessful in South Dakota, and Zell Miller, who retired. Despite these setbacks all four chairmen of the Taiwan Caucus were re-elected.
Deutsch was the most serious supporter of Taiwan to lose office, as he was the leader of a group of congressman who feel that Taiwan should enjoy independence. He claimed that George Bush pressured the Republican leadership in Congress not to bring up a resolution in support of Taiwanese President Chen’s referendum on Chinese missiles pointed towards Taiwan. In a speech in the House, Deutsch also called for dual recognition of both Taiwan and China and Taiwanese membership in the UN and other international organizations. Despite his defeat, Taiwanese analysts feel optimistic about support from the House, which is usually pro-Taiwan and more antagonistic toward China, although this sentiment may become more subdued in the next session. As for the Senate, it normally neglects to pass bills that include serious help for Taiwan, but usually passes symbolic bills indicating support.
Although the expectation is that the Bush administration will not make significant changes in its Taiwan policy, it is currently reviewing its position on cross-strait issues. While not a formal policy review, it represents a significant effort to reconsider current US policies. Specialists feel that the US will try to encourage cross-strait dialogue, but will certainly not directly involve itself in any talks. Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies commented about the administration that, “It is clear that they are going to think very seriously whether they have to play a more active, involved role than they have in the past.” Another source of change in policy may come from a change in principals. Because Colin Powell and Richard Armitage are not expected to serve another four years, Bush might appoint China hawks in their place. John Tkacik of American Heritage noted that the Bush team in its second term would, “review the situation where the United States has to confront a growing desire on the part of the Chinese to expend their sphere of influence. I think in the end we will run up against a confrontation on that issue.” In other words, the traditional conservative antipathy toward China might become more pronounced in a State Department without Colin Powell.
Taiwanese government officials claim to be very pleased with Bush’s victory. Tsai Huang-liang, the whip of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party said that because Bush plans to contain China, the US must rely on Taiwan. Yet a spokesperson for the Nationalist Party said that Bush had created a “red-line” Taiwan could not cross, signifying an increase in pressure. Another opposition candidate from the People First Party claimed that the US was slanting toward China, as could be seen through Colin Powell’s recent comments in Beijing. Many analysts subscribe to this view, who see Powell’s comments as a way for the Bush administration to set a parameter from what it will accept from Taiwan.
-Court Rejects Bid to Nullify Presidential Election
Wu Ching-Yuan, presiding judge of the Taiwan High Court, ruled that the March 19 Presidential Election should not be nullified because of voting irregularities. The judge said that the plaintiff, former Nationalist presidential candidate Lien Chan, was not able to provide direct evidence of voting irregularities. Lien’s attorney said that because the court was controlled by supporters of Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian, Lien would appeal to a higher court. Lien had claimed that the assassination attempt on March 19 that injured Chen was a farce to obtain sympathy votes, and that a mobilization of security organizations illegally prevented large numbers of people from getting to the polls. Protestors at the court became violent soon after the ruling.
Members of Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party are excited about the influence of the court decision on the upcoming December elections. Despite the court decision, Lien has still refused to concede the election despite the fact that it took place in March. The DPP is planning a campaign theme of "teaching Lien and Soong a democracy lesson with votes." Premier Yu Shyi-kun has even said that Lien and his vice presidential candidate James Soong’s refusal to acknowledge the election would go down in Taiwanese history as the “Lien-Soong rebellion.” Many independent analysts agree, as they suspect that refusing to concede may push away moderate voters from the Nationalists. Yet some analysts feel that the court decision may create sympathy votes for the Nationalists.
-New Poll Numbers
Some new poll numbers from Taiwan:
Is Taiwan a sovereign nation?
Yes: 70%
No: 14.5
Don’t know: 10
Bush reelection helpful for Taiwan?
Yes: 54.3%
No: 21
In favor of normalizing ties with US:
Yes: 88%
No: 2%
Would the US sacrifice Taiwan to pursue cooperation with China?
Yes, definitely: 12%
Possibly: 30
Not happen: 29
Definitely not happen: 10
What party is best equipped to protect Taiwan?
Democratic Progressive Party: 27.9
Nationalists: 13.3
Taiwan Solidarity Union: 1.7
People First Party.
-Arms Purchase Delayed Until After December Election
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian’s administration tried one last time to place the special weapons package on the legislative agenda before the December election, but was blocked by opposition in the legislature. The weapons package includes $18US billion worth of American weapons, including, “six Patriot-III anti-missile batteries, eight diesel electric submarines and a squadron of 12 anti-submarine aircraft.” This means that there will be no vote on the package until after the December 11 elections. Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party claimed that the opposition was weak on Taiwan’s national security, while the pan-blue (Nationalists and People First Party) state that the money would be better spent on social issues, and that the weapons would needlessly provoke China while not seriously improving Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
The Democracy Action Alliance, an anti-arms purchase group hunger-striking outside the legislature building, cheered the news by throwing gloves with anti-weapons slogans. Although this group is not connected to any political party, they tried to pressure the legislature into not discussing the arms bill. These individuals also support a European Union type solution to the cross-strait problem. According to them, this plan would allow Taiwan to save money by not purchasing the American weapons. The DAA and pan-blue camp also criticized the government for trying to simultaneously pass a law that would make it legal for the weapons purchase fall outside of the normal budget, while at the same time trying to pass the arms budget.
Senior American officials have recently stated that if the Taiwanese failed to pass the weapons package bill swiftly, it would jeopardize US-Taiwanese military cooperation and send a wrong signal to China. Many military analysts feel that Taiwan must be able to withstand a Chinese attack for two weeks so that the US would have time to send reinforcements to the Taiwan Straits. These weapons would be a key component to a successful, albeit temporary, defense of Taiwan.
Klaatu, barada, nikto!!
Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, November 3 2004
A. More Fallout on Powell’s Comments on Taiwan
B. Arms Sale Delayed
C. New Proposal on Cross-Trait Relations
-More Fallout on Powell’s Comments on Taiwan
When Secretary of State Colin Powell was in China a week ago, he made comments about cross-strait relations that were far more explicit than those previously made by a US official. It caused a firestorm in Taiwan across the political spectrum, and has had serious repercussions on the likelihood of the arms purchase being approved in the near future(see below). The most controversial of Powell’s comments in Beijing was, “Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation, and that remains our policy, our firm policy.” Powell continued to say that he hoped for “peaceful reunification” of Taiwan and the PRC, something which only 4% of Taiwanese hope for in the immediate future.
The US has since tried to play down Powell’s comments, but there has neither been a categorical denial nor a complete restatement of policy. The State Department says Powell meant to say “resolution” instead of reunification, and Powell himself in an interview with CNBC said that the US’ goal, “is really to have a peaceful resolution to the problem.” The director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Douglas Paal, met with the Taiwanese Foreign Minister Mark Chen after Chen demanded an explanation of Powell’s comments. Paal answered by saying that US policy had remained unchanged, and that Powell had defended Taipei during talks in Beijing by supporting Taiwan’s full entrance into the WHO and APEC, as well as speaking in support of US arms sales to Taiwan.
These steps have not been very successful in soothing Taiwanese feelings, especially since Taiwanese elections are fast approaching and all parties are trying to use Powell’s comments to their advantage. Both parties believe that Taiwan is independent, but their positions differ in what that means. The Kuomintang believe Taiwan is a truncated version of the government created in 1912 meant for all of China, while the ruling Democratic Progressive Party believes Taiwan is its own independent country with no links to China. KMT spokesperson Chang Jung-kung said of Powell’s interview, “Powell did not actually say himself that he misspoke nor did he retract his earlier remarks. I don’t see how this interview makes any difference.” Some of those on the opposite side of the political spectrum, whose position is that Taiwan should officially change its name from the Republic of China to Taiwan and change its constitution to make the change official, went to the American Institute in Taiwan to protest. They burned a Chinese flag over a model of the Statue of Liberty and chanted anti-US slogans before police removed them. In sum, it is clear that Powell’s comments did not go over well in Taiwan.
Analysts have differed over why Powell made the comments. Some say that this was a slip of the tongue, while others say that it was an attempt to be tough on Taiwan because it was making noises about independence, while at the same time greasing talks with Beijing. In any case, two things are clear. If Powell did make a slip of the tongue, the retractions may not matter. Zhang Mingqing, a spokesperson for the Chinese government said, “Some people have said Powell has made a slip of the tong, but I don’t believe it.” The Chinese also say that Bush was returning to consistency with these comments after catering to Taiwan. The US may be afraid to restate policy to fix the problem, but that would cause Powell to lose face. The other result is that it has angered many Taiwanese and possibly delayed the arms purchase.
-Taiwanese Arms Purchase
Because of opposition in the Taiwanese legislature, there will be no vote on the American weapons purchase before December 12 elections. The opposition Kuomintang party claims that the money would be better spent on education and social issues, and, incensed by Powell’s comments on Taiwan, were successful in blocking the issue from being set on the pre-election agenda. This may cause Taiwanese-American relations to deteriorate, as American officials feel that Taiwan should be able to defend itself in the case of a Chinese invasion until the US could arrive in force to help defend Taiwan. The US also sees the purchase as an indication of Taiwanese commitment to defense ties. However, many Taiwanese believe that since the US would defend Taiwan in any case, the weapons are a waste of money. Moreover, some are convinced that the weapons purchase would lead to increased tensions in the strait. On the other hand, military analysts in both the US and Taiwan believe that unless Taiwan quickly improves its defenses, China will soon possess (or already possesses) the ability to execute a decapitation strike against Taiwan before the US could react. The arms purchase includes PAC-3 missiles, eight diesel submarines, and submarine hunting aircraft.
-New Proposal on Cross-Strait Relations
The author of this report recently attended a conference on Chinese democracy that was sponsored by several US and Taiwanese think tanks. The author’s professor Kenneth Lieberthal, Bill Clinton’s former Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, was interviewed by the press at this conference about cross-strait relations. He described a recent proposal that deserves mentioning in this report as it was picked up not only by several Taiwaneses news sources, but Western news sources as well. The basic idea of Lieberthal’s proposal is that the current goals of Taiwan and China are totally incompatible. This means that since talks are likely to lead to more frustration due to the inability to reach a final solution, an interim solution is required. This interim solution could last as long as fifty years, after which talks regarding a final solution would resume. During the interim, China would promise not to invade Taiwan, and Taiwan would ensure the mainland that it would take no steps to formalize separation and independence from the mainland. During this time, the rest of the world could take steps that would guarantee that the other side would stick to its agreements. For example, the US would guarantee Taiwan’s security, while threatening to cut all relations with Taiwan should it declare independence. This proposal assumes that as China becomes more economically advanced and possibly even more democratic, it might be more inconceivable for military action to be required.
