Following Formosa

Taiwanese Election

Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, December 15 2004

Special Report on Taiwanese Election: Defying Expectations of Analysts, Opposition Parties in Favor of Closer Ties with Beijing Maintain Majority in Legislature

A: The Numbers

B. Interpretation

C. Repercussions: Domestic and International


The Numbers: (225 Seats Total)

Pan-green (Political parties loyal to President Chen Shui-bian, including Democratic Progressive Party and Taiwan Solidarity Union):
101 seats

Pan-blue (Opposition parties, including Kuomintang and People First Party):
114

Others (Non-partisan Solidarity Union and Independents:
10

Interpretation:
On December 11 the Taiwanese went to the polls to vote for the National Legislature. Most analysts have described the results as an upset by the opposition pan-blue, consisting of the Kuomintang (KMT and People First Party (PFP), over the pan-green parties, made up of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU). However, it should be noted that although most Western news sources have described this as a big victory for the opposition, and the KMT may very well may derive momentum from its victory, the Legislature now looks exactly like it did before the election, with the pan-blues picking up only a single seat.
The interpretation of the results as an “upset” stems from the fact that most polls indicated that the pan-greens would win a majority. The more concrete difference is that the make-up of the pan-blue and pan-green representation has drastically changed, with the larger KMT and DPP parties taking seats from their smaller coalition partners. This has already caused some fighting within the two camps, with the PFP blaming its poor showing on the KMT’s refusal to cooperate in the election. Yet the fact that the KMT and DPP did better at the expense of their smaller and more radical allies shows that Taiwanese are more interested in preserving the status quo with China than rocking the boat.
Also, although the pan-blues have a significantly larger share of seats than the pan-greens, the vote-share between the two camps was almost the same (see below for reason), which means that the political leanings of Taiwanese have not significantly changed. The largest change between the presidential election in March and this latest election for the legislature is that the turnout was much lower than usual, showing that many Taiwanese are becoming turned off by political feuding.
As mentioned above, most analysts thought that the pan-blues would pick up a large number of seats, in part because the opposition was in disarray. The KMT and PFP failed to combine before the election. The KMT continues to be tainted by accusations of dirty money obtained when it instituted one party rule. Most importantly, Lien Chan and James Soong, chairmen of the KMT and PFP and presidential and vice presidential candidates in the March election, refused to recognize the results of that election. They created chaos in Taipei, including some violence, by calling for massive protests. Many Taiwanese were incensed by this. Yet the pan-blues still succeeded. Why? The results of the election can be explained primarily by two factors: serious flaws in election strategy by the pan-greens, and discomfort with President Chen Shui-bian’s election-eve pandering to supporters of Taiwanese independence.
The pan-greens, expecting a huge amount of support, were simply over-confident. In Taiwan’s political system, every county sends a number of representatives to the legislature, and they are selected by whoever wins the most votes. Therefore, candidates not only compete with other parties, they also fight with other members of their own party for the same group of votes. The DPP nominated too many candidates, spreading the vote too thin. Also, confident voters voted for weaker candidates hoping they would succeed, while stronger candidates failed as well. Many strong DPP candidates were unable to run because they are serving in the administration.
Chen in the runup to the election was desperate to win a majority so that he could push through his constitutional amendments (or new constitution) and place Taiwan closer to formal independence during the last years of his second term. He was also nervous about his smaller coalition partner, the TSU, gaining votes by appealing to a sense of Taiwanese nationalism and identity. He therefore based his campaign on identity politics, calling for fundamental changes to the constitution, deciding to use “Taiwan” to apply to the UN, and changing “China” to “Taiwan” at overseas departments and state-industries, insulting the intelligence of most observers by claiming that this name-change was intended to cut down on confusion. When the US commented that it was not in favor of this last move, many Taiwanese thought Chen might be going to far. One analyst of the election said that the US essentially defeated Chen. Finally, the Taiwanese president neglected to face bread-and-butter issues, allowing the KMT to use its patron-client relationships to bring out the local vote. Chen ran a national campaign and lost the local elections.
China may have also influenced the vote. In the weeks before the election, the PRC made comments intended to make clear that it would not accept Taiwanese independence and military force might become the only option. It did not, however, tie these comments directly to the election and was mostly quiet in the few days before voting. In the past, Chinese threats have increased the vote for pro-Taiwanese independence parties. Taiwanese may have decided that slowing down on the road to independence was a safe bet, especially after rebukes from the US.

Repercussions: Domestic and International
On the domestic front, it seems that Chen has decided that the best way forward is to cooperate with the opposition, which is a good sign for a country that has been beset by standoff and gridlock over the last four years. He says that he will become a president for all of Taiwan, not just that of his party. He says that he humbly respects the vote results, and that the “DPP is willing to take the first steps toward reconciliaton.” When announcing his resignation from the post of DPP chairman, his voice was choked with sobs. He said the DPP would adjust its pace and make readjustments after this loss. It is clear that he fully expected to win, and is personally reeling from the surprise results.
Relations with the United States will probably not change dramatically. However, the victorious pan-blue oppose the purchase of American weapons, which Washington says is essential if Taiwan wants to prove to the US it is serious about its own defense. It will be much more difficult politically for the US to protect Taiwan if the weapons purchase is not successfully concluded.
Most analysts also do not believe that the results will have any serious immediate affect on cross-strait relations. Although the pan-blue support closer ties to China and have criticized Chen for risking war by provoking the mainland, that does not necessarily cross-strait talks are in the making. Indeed, China may feel that Chen and the Taiwanese-Independence camp is losing momentum and that refusal to negotiate may make them even more politically isolated. In the long term, however, the pan-blues will be in a position to block Chen’s attempts to change the constitution, or take other steps that would bring Taiwan closer to de jure independence and simultaneously anger China.

posted by Joseph @ 1:21 AM