Following Formosa

I am a graduate of Starfleet Academy; I know many things.

Again, the Word file with my report has hyperlinks to a bunch of sites. If you want the exact sites because you're interested, please let me know.

Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, December 1 2004

A. Taiwanese President Calls for Referendum on Constitution, US Expresses Anxiety

B. Taiwan Excluded from ASEAN

C. Taiwan’s Credit Rating Threatened By Cross-Strait Tensions

-Taiwanese President Calls for Referendum on Constitution, US Expresses Anxiety
Recent comments by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-Bian about a referendum on a “new Taiwan Constitution” has led the United States to ask for Chen to explain his comments, which in essence can be interpreted as a mild rebuke and warning. Chen has called for the termination of Taiwan’s current “Chinese constitution,” likening it to “a child wearing an adult’s clothes.” He plans for a referendum on a Taiwanese constitution in 2006, and its implementation on May 20, 2008, the day of the inauguration of Taiwan’s next president. He said that it was imperative for his “pan-green” supporters to win a majority in the Legislature in December 11 elections for his plans to be able to succeed.
Chen has been ambiguous about the nature of the changes. Although he says that the new constitution would be created specifically to meet the island’s needs, he defers on the question of whether or not it would be an entirely new constitution, or merely consist of amendments to the one currently in place that was brought to Taiwan by the Nationalists. Chen says of the issue, “The most important thing is to actually kick off the constitutional reform program, not a battle of words over ‘constitution-making’ and ‘constitution-revising.’”
In Taiwan this subtle terminology reverberates far behind domestic politics. Most analysts see Chen’s objective is to separate Taiwan from the mainland in a more concrete way by fundamentally changing its mainland-origin constitution. Although Taiwan has changed the constitution a number of times in the past, the scope of the Taiwanese government’s current plans is clearly far more expansive. China’s former foreign minister Tang Jiaxun has weighed in on the subject, saying that Chen was trying to create an “atmosphere of propaganda.” Tang also accused Chen of exploiting China’s hosting of the 2008 Olympics by provoking China with a constitutional referendum at a time when China was preoccupied. Communist-controlled news agencies have also said that China would go to war to prevent Chen from making a new constitution.
State Department Spokesperson Richard Boucher has called on Chen to reassert his support of the “four nos,” those being not declaring independence, not changing the country’s name, (officially “the Republic of China,”) not including a clause regarding Taiwanese existence as an independent sovereign state in the constitution, and not holding a referendum on changing the status quo. Boucher stressed that, “We are opposed to any referendum that would change Taiwan’s status or move toward independence.” Chen has stated that he continues to adhere to the aforementioned “four no’s.” Yet despite Chen’s repeated statements of commitment, he has already decided to apply to the United Nations using the name Taiwan, not Republic of China. Also, it seems that his plans for a “Taiwanese Constitution” could be seen as a violation of his previous promises. It is uncertain how seriously his statements should be taken because of the December election, but it seems clear that the problem of Taiwan’s constitution should be the biggest problem, and potentially most destabilizing factor, in East Asia for the next few years

-Taiwan Excluded from ASEAN
The Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs has claimed that China’s agreement to form a free trade area with the ASEAN nations is a deliberate effort to isolate Taiwan. According to MOFA, this trade agreement is a deliberate attempt by the mainland to economically isolate Taiwan from the rest of Southeast Asia.

-Taiwan’s Credit Rating Threatened by Cross-Strait Tensions
Standard and Poor’s has cut Taiwan’s economic outlook from stable to negative because of fears that cross-strait tensions will spiral out of control. Alan Tseng, a vice president at Capital Securities, commented, “The S&P downgrade was definitely a piece of bad news, especially to overseas investors, because it came from what's seen as an objective outsider voicing concerns over cross-strait tensions.” In conjunction with China’s deliberate attempts to economically isolate Taiwan, Taiwanese economic and political independence could likely become less feasible.


-For an excellent article on the possibilities and repercussions of the upcoming Taiwanese elections in Asia Times, please go to http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FL01Ad03.html.


Joseph Torigian
jptori@umich.edu

posted by Joseph @ 3:48 AM