Following Formosa

Who is the Kwisatz Haderach?

Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, November 24 2004

A. APEC Conference and Cross-Strait Relations

B. Taiwanese President Unveils some Potentially Destabilizing Policies

-APEC Conference and Cross-Strait Relations
The recent APEC Conference in Santiago, Chile was notable for a number of developments regarding cross-strait relations. Chinese President Hu Jintao met with President George W. Bush and they discussed Taiwan in detail. Hu spent a large amount of time lecturing Bush on the situation between China and Taiwan, and a spokesperson for the Chinese side said of the discussions: “The US side should perceive the dangerous nature of Taiwan independence and work together to check the separatist activities there.” Bush responded by criticizing the missile buildup in Fujian province across from Taiwan, and urged Hu to scale back the military presence in the area to reduce tensions. Secretary of State Colin Powell said that Bush, “passed on our concern that there are so many missiles on the mainland pointed at Taiwan.” At the same time, the two seemed to have worked out an informal agreement. Bush agreed to not support Taiwanese independence while China agreed to support the rebuilding of Iraq and work with America on the issue of North Korea’s weapons program. Furthermore, senior US officials in Washington said that China “understood” the importance of cross-strait dialogue, which some analysts interpret as a possible sign that China might be more open to talking with Taiwan. A final important footnote regarding this meeting is that the US briefed Taiwan on what was to be discussed at the meeting before it took place, which was stressed because of Taiwan’s shock and outrage at Powell’s comments in Beijing several weeks ago because of not being previously notified. A representative of the Taiwanese government mentioned, “US authorities briefed us on their basic policy line ahead of the Bush-Hu talks on the sidelines of the ongoing informal leadership meeting of the APEC forum in Santiago the previous day.”
Another important meeting at the conference was between Taiwan’s representative, Yuan T. Lee, the head of Academica Sinica (the top government research institute in Taiwan) and Hu Jintao. It is the highest level meeting between the two sides in twelve years. At most conferences the Chinese side ignores the Taiwanese delegation. Lee described the conversaton as cordial and thathe and Hu could “talk like friends,” but the two sides completely disagreed on what was discussed. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Kong Quan said, “The core element of their conversation was that the one China principle must be adhered to.” Lee, however, said, “We didn’t raise cross-strait issues because they were unrelated to the APEC summit.” Lee blamed China’s comment on the fact that the Chinese mention “the one China principle” all the time and the recent statement was nothing to be surprised about. It is clear, however, that this meeting is an important development when seen in tandem with the US officials’ comments on the Hu-Bush talks.
The final meeting that deserves mentioning is that of between Lee and Bush. Lee said that, “While I was talking with Putin, Bush patted my shoulder from behind and that Putin that I’m a Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry.” Lee congratulated Bush on his re-election and was introduced to the first lady. It seems that this type of small talk was the extent of the conversation.


-Taiwanese President Unveils Several Potentially Destabilizing Policies
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has recently warned that if China continues to “bully” Taiwan, Taiwan would be forced to consider a referendum on “one country, two systems.” Chen said at a campaign rally, “We would like to tell Beijing that if you force us too much, we will not exclude putting these demands as topics for referendums.” This came about after the leader of the opposition pan-blue camp, Lien Chan, tried to call the president’s bluff by suggesting that the president sponsor a referendum on reunification or independence. This would put pressure on the president to support a policy he knew would be destabilizing but pleasing to his voter base. The President countered by saying a bill past last year by the dominant pan-blue camp in the Legislative Yuan known as the “bird-cage” Referendum Law prevented certain types of referendums, including those regarding independence and reunification. A referendum on “one country, two systems” would be legal, however. Yet Chen did promise that if his pan-green camp was able to gain a majority in the December 11 election, he would reform the Referendum Law to allow for more types of referendums, each of which potentially destabilizing to the Taiwan Straits.
At the same time, Chen has been supporting new policies that he believes would make Taiwanese de facto independence and sovereignty more clear to the international community, which he believes would thereby make de jure sovereignty more likely. He has called for changes to Taiwan’s education system to focus on Taiwanese history rather than Chinese history, to change the country’s emblem, and even to change the country’s national anthem. Most importantly, he has also called for a complete overhaul of the country’s constitution to make it a “normal” country. As Chen has also been calling for dialogue with the mainland, it is unclear what his future plans for cross-strait relations might be. As most analysts tend to agree that the green-party will have at least a slim majority in the Legislative Yuan after the elections, Chen might start making the most concrete steps so far towards Taiwanese independence. Things may soon come to a head.

posted by Joseph @ 3:27 AM