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Taiwanese News
Summary and Analysis, November 10 2004

A. Implications of US Election for Taiwan

B. Court Rejects Bid to Nullify Presidential Election

C. New Poll Numbers

D. Arms Purchase Delayed Until After Election


-Implications of US Election for Taiwan

Taiwanese analysts feel that despite the loss of several influential members of the Taiwan Caucus in Congress because of retirement or unsuccessful election campaigns, support for Taiwan in the Senate and House should remain strong. Florida Democrat Peter Deutsch and Pennsylvania Democrat Joseph Hoeffel, both strong supporters of Taiwan, lost bids for the Senate. Two other losses for the Taiwan Caucus include Tom Daschle, whose bid for re-election was unsuccessful in South Dakota, and Zell Miller, who retired. Despite these setbacks all four chairmen of the Taiwan Caucus were re-elected.
Deutsch was the most serious supporter of Taiwan to lose office, as he was the leader of a group of congressman who feel that Taiwan should enjoy independence. He claimed that George Bush pressured the Republican leadership in Congress not to bring up a resolution in support of Taiwanese President Chen’s referendum on Chinese missiles pointed towards Taiwan. In a speech in the House, Deutsch also called for dual recognition of both Taiwan and China and Taiwanese membership in the UN and other international organizations. Despite his defeat, Taiwanese analysts feel optimistic about support from the House, which is usually pro-Taiwan and more antagonistic toward China, although this sentiment may become more subdued in the next session. As for the Senate, it normally neglects to pass bills that include serious help for Taiwan, but usually passes symbolic bills indicating support.
Although the expectation is that the Bush administration will not make significant changes in its Taiwan policy, it is currently reviewing its position on cross-strait issues. While not a formal policy review, it represents a significant effort to reconsider current US policies. Specialists feel that the US will try to encourage cross-strait dialogue, but will certainly not directly involve itself in any talks. Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies commented about the administration that, “It is clear that they are going to think very seriously whether they have to play a more active, involved role than they have in the past.” Another source of change in policy may come from a change in principals. Because Colin Powell and Richard Armitage are not expected to serve another four years, Bush might appoint China hawks in their place. John Tkacik of American Heritage noted that the Bush team in its second term would, “review the situation where the United States has to confront a growing desire on the part of the Chinese to expend their sphere of influence. I think in the end we will run up against a confrontation on that issue.” In other words, the traditional conservative antipathy toward China might become more pronounced in a State Department without Colin Powell.
Taiwanese government officials claim to be very pleased with Bush’s victory. Tsai Huang-liang, the whip of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party said that because Bush plans to contain China, the US must rely on Taiwan. Yet a spokesperson for the Nationalist Party said that Bush had created a “red-line” Taiwan could not cross, signifying an increase in pressure. Another opposition candidate from the People First Party claimed that the US was slanting toward China, as could be seen through Colin Powell’s recent comments in Beijing. Many analysts subscribe to this view, who see Powell’s comments as a way for the Bush administration to set a parameter from what it will accept from Taiwan.

-Court Rejects Bid to Nullify Presidential Election

Wu Ching-Yuan, presiding judge of the Taiwan High Court, ruled that the March 19 Presidential Election should not be nullified because of voting irregularities. The judge said that the plaintiff, former Nationalist presidential candidate Lien Chan, was not able to provide direct evidence of voting irregularities. Lien’s attorney said that because the court was controlled by supporters of Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian, Lien would appeal to a higher court. Lien had claimed that the assassination attempt on March 19 that injured Chen was a farce to obtain sympathy votes, and that a mobilization of security organizations illegally prevented large numbers of people from getting to the polls. Protestors at the court became violent soon after the ruling.
Members of Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party are excited about the influence of the court decision on the upcoming December elections. Despite the court decision, Lien has still refused to concede the election despite the fact that it took place in March. The DPP is planning a campaign theme of "teaching Lien and Soong a democracy lesson with votes." Premier Yu Shyi-kun has even said that Lien and his vice presidential candidate James Soong’s refusal to acknowledge the election would go down in Taiwanese history as the “Lien-Soong rebellion.” Many independent analysts agree, as they suspect that refusing to concede may push away moderate voters from the Nationalists. Yet some analysts feel that the court decision may create sympathy votes for the Nationalists.

-New Poll Numbers

Some new poll numbers from Taiwan:

Is Taiwan a sovereign nation?
Yes: 70%
No: 14.5
Don’t know: 10

Bush reelection helpful for Taiwan?
Yes: 54.3%
No: 21

In favor of normalizing ties with US:
Yes: 88%
No: 2%



Would the US sacrifice Taiwan to pursue cooperation with China?
Yes, definitely: 12%
Possibly: 30
Not happen: 29
Definitely not happen: 10

What party is best equipped to protect Taiwan?
Democratic Progressive Party: 27.9
Nationalists: 13.3
Taiwan Solidarity Union: 1.7
People First Party.

-Arms Purchase Delayed Until After December Election

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian’s administration tried one last time to place the special weapons package on the legislative agenda before the December election, but was blocked by opposition in the legislature. The weapons package includes $18US billion worth of American weapons, including, “six Patriot-III anti-missile batteries, eight diesel electric submarines and a squadron of 12 anti-submarine aircraft.” This means that there will be no vote on the package until after the December 11 elections. Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party claimed that the opposition was weak on Taiwan’s national security, while the pan-blue (Nationalists and People First Party) state that the money would be better spent on social issues, and that the weapons would needlessly provoke China while not seriously improving Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
The Democracy Action Alliance, an anti-arms purchase group hunger-striking outside the legislature building, cheered the news by throwing gloves with anti-weapons slogans. Although this group is not connected to any political party, they tried to pressure the legislature into not discussing the arms bill. These individuals also support a European Union type solution to the cross-strait problem. According to them, this plan would allow Taiwan to save money by not purchasing the American weapons. The DAA and pan-blue camp also criticized the government for trying to simultaneously pass a law that would make it legal for the weapons purchase fall outside of the normal budget, while at the same time trying to pass the arms budget.
Senior American officials have recently stated that if the Taiwanese failed to pass the weapons package bill swiftly, it would jeopardize US-Taiwanese military cooperation and send a wrong signal to China. Many military analysts feel that Taiwan must be able to withstand a Chinese attack for two weeks so that the US would have time to send reinforcements to the Taiwan Straits. These weapons would be a key component to a successful, albeit temporary, defense of Taiwan.

posted by Joseph @ 5:03 AM